Box Office Predictions (7-9th June)

This is a new feature I am thinking of implementing each week. I know a lot of my followers are stat addicts and being a movie blog I tend to keep an eye on box office figures. The figures can be very important to films, not only for studios but for viewers who want a sequel or to avoid one and if you just want to know your favourite film is doing well. Hopefully good films making money will be a new trend. I’d appreciate any feedback as I am trying it out before the big weekend of Man of Steel’s release.

Returning Films

Whilst Fast and Furious 6 has had a stellar couple of weeks at #1 I cannot imagine it taking yet another weekend with 3 new releases to contend the position this weekend, so am going with $14M this weekend. Then again After Earth bombed epically last weekend so we may see another weekend of weak releases, going for an equally bad return for After Earth with $10M. Now You See Me did pretty well last weekend but with average reviews and modest popularity I can’t imagine it doing much better than half its first weekend numbers, so will end up at $15M.

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New Films

The Internship

Plot:

Wedding Crashers duo Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn reteam on this Shawn Levy-directed comedy as two out of work salesmen who have to compete as interns in a tech company in order to score a job.

Analysis:

Comedies haven’t done well this year both in a critical and box office formats. For example Hangover Part III did particularly bad on its first weekend, however it did come of the back of a disappointing franchise film. This new film isn’t connected to a franchise which normally hurts films but might help in this case because people looking for comic relief in the summer will chance it because there aren’t many choices at the moment. Other benefits are a younger crowd surrounding the story of Internships and fans of Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson. My prediction is $20M.

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The Purge

Plot:

If on one night every year, you could commit any crime without facing consequences, what would you do? In The Purge, a speculative thriller that follows one family over the course of a single night, four people will be tested to see how far they will go to protect themselves when the vicious outside world breaks into their home.

Analysis:

Been a while since a new horror release and horror films have been doing very well this year, however that was in winter and I am not sure people are in the mood for a scare in the dark when the sun is shining outside. The reviews are average to good but reviews don’t normally affect horror films so it doesn’t really matter. The concept of the film is fascinating but that may just be me and it’s hard to speculate on others opinions. The film for example opened poorly in the UK last weekend. My prediction $18M.

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Much Ado About Nothing

Plot:

Shakespeare’s classic comedy is given a contemporary spin in Joss Whedon’s film, “Much Ado About Nothing”. Shot in just 12 days (and using the original text), the story of sparring lovers Beatrice and Benedick offers a dark, sexy and occasionally absurd view of the intricate game that is love.

Analysis:

This film isn’t going to break the bank this weekend due to limited release but where is released I am sure it will find strong numbers of the success of Joss Whedon’s The Avengers. The cast is also popular with his fans so I hope it does well. My prediction $500,000.

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1. The Internship: -$20M
2. The Purge: -$18M
3. Now You See Me: -$15M
4. Fast and Furious 6: -$14M
5. After Earth: -$10M
6. Star Trek Into Darkness: -$9M
7. Epic: -$9M
8. The Hangover Part III: -$8M
9. Iron Man 3: -$4M
10. The Great Gatsby: -$3M

Well that’s my views. Now what do you think about this weekend and its new releases?